POLITICS BY THE NUMBERS

by Charles Bierbauer

Republicans and Democrats in South Carolina have one thing in common.  Three of ten voters in each party are undecided or unsure about their votes in the coming presidential primaries, according to the latest Winthrop/ETV Poll.

There is also one great difference.  While 29.6% of likely Democratic primary voters are undecided, a greater number—33 %–say they would vote for Hillary Clinton, a more than 10-point margin, and widening, over her closest rival, Barack Obama.  If not yet convincing with all those undecideds, the recently conducted poll suggests  Senator Clinton may be hard to catch.

In contrast, the 29.9% undecided are the largest contingent among likely Republican primary voters beset with indecision.  At a distant 17.9%, Fred Thompson  trails the undecided.  A statistical blanket covers Thompson and two other Republicans—Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.  It’s a more uncertain race, but it’s tempered by the lack of overt enthusiasm for the Republican field.

Those of us who dislike the media’s tendency to cover politics as a horse race, eschew the polls taken a year or even six months out.  They are just as likely to reflect the wavering whims of an unfocussed electorate as any defining trend.  Who’s running?  Oh, yeah, I like her.  More likely: never heard of him.  Remember what was happening six months out, Thompson was not even in the race.  Well, Tommy Thompson was.  Remember him?  But not Fred Thompson.

All polls are snapshots taken at a moment in the campaign.  Winthrop polled in October.  With the first primary voting now just two months off, the snapshot is coming into focus.  Trim and crop from the bottom.  The eight and ten-candidate fields are no more than four-a-side now, and some of them are fading from the picture.

Winthrop’s Dr. Scott Huffman, who directs the poll, suggests the almost singular focus for candidates in both parties is to demonstrate they can beat Senator Clinton.  “She is the candidate a lot of establishment Democrats feel can win back the presidency,” Huffman says.  Not Obama.  Not Edwards.

And among Republicans? Romney, Huffman says, needs to persuade South Carolinians “that Giuliani is not the only one who can beat Clinton.”  Giuliani “needs to convince primary voters that he is the only one who can beat Clinton.”

What might change South Carolina voters’ minds?  How the candidates stack up in Iowa and New Hampshire can influence some.  John Edwards and Mitt Romney certainly hope that is the case in Iowa where they have invested heavily.

Win in the early states—even just beat expectations–and get what former President George Bush called “the big Mo.”  That’s “mo” as in momentum and “mo” as in money.  The two are inextricably linked.  A candidate gaining momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire is also likely to have an easier time raising funds to spend in South Carolina.  Lose momentum, lose the flow of money, and soon you head to the beach.

South Carolina voters are paying attention.  An equal 76% of likely Republican and Democratic voters told the Winthrop pollsters that they are following the campaign “very closely” or “somewhat closely.”  Not quite up close and personal, though.  Although at times it may seem like there’s a candidate on every corner, only 13% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans say they have actually met or seen a candidate in person.

Get ready, then, for a media blitz.  It will likely be measured in the distracted days between the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays and all out in the brisk first days of January.  The prize goes to those candidates who can move the numbers out of the undecided column and into theirs.

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Charles Bierbauer covered presidential campaigns from 1984 through 2000 for CNN.  Bierbauer is currently dean of the College of Mass Communications and Information Studies at the University of South Carolina, though the opinions here are his and not those of the university.  He is senior contributing editor and a consultant to SCHotline.com.