IS IT MCCAIN OR HUCKABEE?
January 14, 2008
by Charles Bierbauer
There is no clear Republican leader, but there may be an emerging two-man race for the party’s presidential nomination. The caucus and primary victories of Mike Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire have set the stage for a face-off in the South Carolina primary on Saturday as the survivors for the long road still ahead.
Of course, Mitt Romney could alter the equation by winning Michigan’s primary on Tuesday. If that happens, delete this story and wait for further developments while we change the crystals in our crystal ball.
There’s no question McCain has been on the big bounce post-New Hampshire. He’s gained ground in both Michigan and South Carolina. Huckabee would be satisfied with a respectable third place in Michigan, but thinks he can win South Carolina.
When I chatted with Huckabee after his Saturday night rally in Columbia, he was quite happy with the premise that a two-man McCain-Huckabee race was evolving. Just call it Huckabee-McCain, he suggested.
Funny thing, politics. Only a couple of months ago, McCain’s campaign was foundering. Huckabee’s campaign had not yet found its footing. Both were operating on shoe strings, McCain having squandered sizeable resources and Huckabee still searching for the key to turn on the funding taps. Winning even a single early state can lead to a change of fortune.
Romney, the first to run campaign ads in South Carolina months ahead of his opponents, is off the air here and concentrated in Michigan. His campaign says it did not “pull” its television ads, but just didn’t renew the ad buy. That’s hair-splitting that may not matter after Tuesday. Or the Romney campaign could be scrambling Wednesday to find whatever air-time is unsold.
Television stations across the state are inundated with political ads. Even Ron Paul is on the air—and in the air with a blimp, or is that just a YouTube illusion?
This past week’s Republican debate in Myrtle Beach highlighted two battles going on among the candidates. Huckabee and Fred Thompson are wrestling for the evangelical vote. McCain and Romney pointedly talked about Michigan as well as South Carolina.
A Fox focus group seemed to think Thompson had won the debate. Huckabee aides say Thompson only beat low expectations.
Rudy Giuliani is gambling there will still be a race for him to contest beyond South Carolina. There likely will be in Florida and the 22-state mega vote on February 5th. But Giuliani will be coming off the starting blocks when the survivors of the earlier primaries have rolling momentum.
The nature of the primary season changes dramatically beyond South Carolina. Multiple states are in play at once. Big states, such as California and New York, where the cost of television ad time is dramatically higher. Western states where McCain, an Arizonan, would expect to do well. More Southern states where Huckabee, an Arkansan, hopes for strong support.
The Democrats, for all practical purposes, seem to already be in a two-candidate race, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. John Edwards won South Carolina in 2004, but against a cool New Englander, not the likes of Obama and Clinton.
McCain, in contrast, would welcome a reversal of his previous experience in this state. In 2000, McCain lost South Carolina after a malicious campaign of falsehoods launched by supporters of George Bush.
The State newspaper on Sunday endorsed McCain, an endorsement the paper’s editors said they should have made eight years ago. Who knows how many South Carolina voters might also think McCain deserves a better shake than they gave him in 2000.
The primary here won’t resolve the Republican race, but it will narrow it, perhaps to just two candidates for the long haul. Pick two? Today, Huckabee and McCain. But check back on Sunday.
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Charles Bierbauer covered presidential campaigns for CNN from 1984 through 2000. He is dean of the College of Mass Communications and Information Studies at the University of South Carolina, though the views here are his own and not those of the university. Bierbauer is senior contributing editor and a consultant to SCHotline.com.
January 14, 2008 at 8:27 pm
Hello Charles,
I am glad that deer did not impede your health or ability to continue your fine website from that Myrtle Beach incident. As one who is new to South Carolina from New Jersey but is very familiar with corrupt politics there and here,I find a breath of fresh air with even the seniors running around with their Ron Paul banners etc. While the big story is whether the turnout will be as record breaking like as Iowans did at their caucuses,I am hopeful that there will be no last minute tricks to confuse voters or limit their legal rights at both Republican and Democratic primaries. Yes,I have a favored candidate to vote for.No,I choose not to share that but I am concerned that the voting is fair and if you have any associates familiar with the touch screen process,can you ask them if the accounting or tabulating has a paper backup trail just in case a couple of lawyers challenge the results? thanks,mark
January 14, 2008 at 8:37 pm
We can only hope that the word gets out what liberals McCain, Hucakbee and Romney are. Enough of the lefties!
Perhaps everyone needs to go to http://www.ontheissues.com and read about their candidate of choice before voting on Saturday.
January 15, 2008 at 2:11 am
McCain-Feingold — the most brazen frontal assault on political speech since Buckley v. Valeo.
McCain-Kennedy — the most far-reaching amnesty program in American history.
McCain-Lieberman — the most onerous and intrusive attack on American industry — through reporting, regulating, and taxing Authority of greenhouse gases — in American history.
McCain-Kennedy-Edwards — the biggest boon to the trial bar since the tobacco settlement, under the rubric of a patients’ bill of rights.
McCain-Reimportantion of Drugs — a significant blow to pharmaceutical research and development, not to mention consumer safety.
John McCain is RINO centrist at best and certainly is no friend to social conservatives. He has made a name for himself by knifing conservatives time and time again for the amusement of his liberal pals in the mainstream media.
Huckabee is a proven leader.
2005 Named Public Official of the Year (Headline in Nov, 2005 issue of Governing’s): “Strong and Strategic Leadership”
Time Magazine named him One of Nation’s Best Governors.
Named: Distinguished Public Health Legislator of the Year. (According to the American Public Health Association, who presented the award, Huckabee was recognized because he “has been a leader in improving the health care for the citizens of Arkansas for many years.”
Recipient of the 2006 AARP Impact Award. This award is given to “10 honorees who did something extraordinary to make the world a better place,”
Honored by Government Technology Magazine
Selected by his colleagues as Chairman of National Governor’s Association
During his long tenure as governor…
- Welfare rolls declined by almost half! (Wikipedia)
- State economy grew 4.4% beating the national average of 4.2%. (Time Magazine Nov, 13, 2005)
- [“Huckabee has approached his state’s troubles with energy and innovation.” (Time Nov. 13, 2005)
- He has been praised for making children’s health care a high priority. Children without medical insurance fell from 18% to 9%. (Time Magazine)
- According to the Tax Foundation, a nonprofit fiscal policy research group, Arkansas ranked right in the middle of the nation in measurement of tax burden per capita (CNNMONEY Oct 4, 2006).
Needless to say; Mike has my vote.
January 16, 2008 at 7:34 pm
John McCain is the ONLY candidate who can lead us out of the foreign policy morass we find ourselves in around the world. This global fight against radical Islamism is going to last decades. It is not just about Iraq. This snake has many heads. McCain is the only candidate who has the experience, the instincts, the understanding of the military and the diplomatic savvy to guide this nation during this most critical time in our history.
January 16, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Mr. Bierbauer,
I used to think that McCain and Huckabee were essentially the co-frontrunners of the GOP, but now I’m thinking that Mitt Romney is actually the best positioned to win this thing. Prior to Romney’s victory in Michigan last night (and excluding Wyoming, which many people seem to ignore), Romney has a pair of “silver medals.” A quick look at Real Clear Politics shows that he polls well in most other states too, even if he’s not leading them. But should Romney keep placing a consistent second (with the isolated first place showing), he may emerge as every Republican’s second choice, but nobody’s favorite. That might not be enough to sweep Republicans off their feet, but it will be enough for him to secure the nomination.
It seems like Republicans are still looking for their great conservative hope to sweep them off their feet. First it was McCain, then it was Thompson, then it was Huckabee. But because this conservative never materialized, Republicans may find themselves settling for “Mr. Consensus” instead of “Mr. Conservative.”
And that’s where Romney comes in. He might not galvanize Republicans like Obama does (or the way Fred Thompson initially did), but he would at least be reasonably acceptable to most segments of the GOP base.